DONE DEAL: Miami Set To Sign “A” New Contract With…

Miami extended an offer out to Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna quarterbackc on Sunday. That news naturally generated a ton of buzz not only because the Hurricanes opened the door to taking a second quarterback, but because the local passer, who has long been committed to NC State, has a ton of ties to some of the top prospects in the area.

To dissect the latter, after checking in around the situation, I do not get the impression that this was an offer extended to capitalize on Bailey’s connection to five-star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and Miami commits like Joshisa Trader and Chance Robinson amongst others. If that were the case, the Hurricanes would have offered a long time ago. But if that is a potential plus to landing a player like Bailey, that certainly doesn’t hurt.

When Mississippi State’s Will Rogers entered the NCAA Transfer Portal, one of the most productive ‘Air-Raid’ quarterbacks in recent years hit the open market.

Rogers thrived as the quarterback in the Mike Leach ‘Air-Raid’ offense from 2020-22, throwing for 10,689 yards with 82 touchdowns and 24 interceptions while completing 70.7 percent of his throws during those three seasons.

In 2023, Rogers threw for 1,626 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions in eight games while playing in a different style of offense under one-year head coach Zach Arnett.

Rogers is a veteran quarterback that has started 40 games while playing 2,885 offensive snaps in his college career.

Rogers posted a 23-17 record as the starting quarterback at Mississippi State

So what is Rogers like when he is at his best? Let’s examine Rogers’ 2021 season in which he threw for 4,739 yards, which was third most in the country behind Bailey Zappe and Bryce Young, with 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions while completing 73.9 percent of his throws.

In that season, Rogers averaged 52 passing attempts per game. He threw for at least 400 yards in four games, against Memphis, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Auburn. Against Auburn, Rogers tossed six touchdown passes.

Pro Football Focus graded Rogers with a 90.0 passing grade.

PFF credited Rogers with 27 ‘big time throws’ against 14 ‘turnover worthy plays’ during the 2021 season.

Rogers was excellent in 2021 when he was kept clean by his protection. According to PFF, Rogers was kept clean on 82.7 percent of his drop-backs. On those passing attempts, Rogers completed 77.3 percent of his throws with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. (As a point of reference, Miami’s protection in 2023 kept Tyler Van Dyke clean on 76.2 percent of his drop backs).

During that 2021 season, Rogers connected on 24-of-53 deep shot attempts for 691 yards with ten touchdowns and three interceptions. He was also effective in the medium passing game, completing 93-of-153 attempts for 1,488 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions.

The production and effectiveness of Rogers dipped slightly in 2022 and significantly in 2023. The primary reason for the dip from 2021 to 2022 was a regression in the pass protection year over year. PFF graded Mississippi State as the No. 4 pass blocking bunch in the country in 2021. The 2022 group graded out No. 29 overall in the country in pass protection. The reason for the dip in production in 2023 had to do with a new coaching regime that changed the approach on offense.

Rogers doesn’t bring much of a run threat to the quarterback position, but when he does run for yards, he does it as a scrambler.

Pro Football Focus graded Rogers with a 90.0 passing grade.

PFF credited Rogers with 27 ‘big time throws’ against 14 ‘turnover worthy plays’ during the 2021 season.

Rogers was excellent in 2021 when he was kept clean by his protection. According to PFF, Rogers was kept clean on 82.7 percent of his drop-backs. On those passing attempts, Rogers completed 77.3 percent of his throws with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. (As a point of reference, Miami’s protection in 2023 kept Tyler Van Dyke clean on 76.2 percent of his drop backs).

During that 2021 season, Rogers connected on 24-of-53 deep shot attempts for 691 yards with ten touchdowns and three interceptions. He was also effective in the medium passing game, completing 93-of-153 attempts for 1,488 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions.

The production and effectiveness of Rogers dipped slightly in 2022 and significantly in 2023. The primary reason for the dip from 2021 to 2022 was a regression in the pass protection year over year. PFF graded Mississippi State as the No. 4 pass blocking bunch in the country in 2021. The 2022 group graded out No. 29 overall in the country in pass protection. The reason for the dip in production in 2023 had to do with a new coaching regime that changed the approach on offense.

Rogers doesn’t bring much of a run threat to the quarterback position, but when he does run for yards, he does it as a scrambler.

Overall, Rogers is an intriguing option because of his comfort level in the type of system that UM offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson has installed. Rogers doesn’t possess elite physical traits, but he understands the ‘Air-Raid’ principles and he can be a solid distributor of the football.

Popular as they may be, any time we take a stab at projecting transfers, we always end up with a bundle of hate in our mentions and our DMs. It’s understandable.

As much as college football players might act like professionals with free agency-like moves in the transfer portal and NIL offerings at their doorstep, they’re still student-athletes. Articles such as this one have to remove the gossip filter and focus on the fact, which is this: We are living in the QB transfer era, with more than 62% of Power Five starters in 2023 having been former transfers.

A season ago, we nailed 10 out of 11 quarterback situations (there was, in fact, portal movement at Miami, but it did not involve Tyler Van Dyke, whom we had written about, so we won’t take credit for that one).

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